Fact Check: Gov. Lee’s failed Covid-19 response ignores reality
Lee administration dismisses worst week of pandemic as ‘sticker shock’
Tennessee just recorded its worst week of the coronavirus pandemic ever. More people are getting infected, lying in hospitals and dying than ever before.
While Senate Democrats called for immediate interventions to reduce the number of new cases, Gov. Bill Lee’s administration dismissed concerns about record numbers as “sticker shock.”
The Lee administration doesn’t seem too concerned. They should be.
Here’s more context for what he and his administration said:
CLAIM: Lee admin describes the positivity rate as “stable and reassuring” over the last 30 days.
REALITY: The positivity rate has jumped 67% in a month.
On June 15, the positivity rate was 5.4% On July 15, the positivity rate was 9% — that’s a 67 percent increase.
The positivity rate is the percentage of new cases over new tests. Note: For the purpose of smoothing out single-day jumps and drops, our calculation uses the seven-day rolling average from state health department data.
In April, a 14-day decrease in positivity is what the Lee administration used to justify reopening. We’re upside down on that figure now.
CLAIM: “The biggest data point for us is hospitalization and hospital capacity… the hospitalization rate is not rising commensurate with the case rate.”
REALITY: Growth in hospitalizations is currently outpacing new cases in the last week.
Today, the state is averaging 61 new patients a day — that’s a 35% increase over the average a week ago (45 new patients a day). And on Tuesday, Tennessee hit a two-month single-day high for new patient admissions at 94.
Meanwhile, the state’s average number of new cases has also increased to record levels at 1,943 a day — a 25 percent increase over a week ago (1,560 new cases a day). Record, yes, but clearly outpaced by the percentage of growth in hospitalizations.
Today, 17 percent of the hospital beds in the state remain available today, but that’s not the case everywhere. In Shelby County, there were only 44 ICU beds left.
But why are we waiting for “emergency levels” at any hospital?
PLUS: Increased hospitalizations are a “lagging indicator” of “widespread community transmission” says Vanderbilt University Medical Center.
“Importantly, hospitalizations come after new cases are reported, and will continue to increase for a period even after public health measures are in place, so the decision to intervene should occur before stress on health care capacity becomes critical.”
CLAIM: “Americans wouldn’t tolerate” interventions other governments have implemented to contain the virus, like a mask mandate.
REALITY: Americans in 25 states are living with a mask mandate.
This includes neighboring states like Alabama, Virginia, North Carolina and Kentucky. Some major chain retailers are also requiring masks — such as Walmart, Costco and Dollar Tree.
Note: All numbers and statistics calculated using seven-day rolling averages to smooth out spikes and drops over time. Let me know if you need access to any numbers.
